QUANTITIVE RISK ANALISYS OF IT-STARTUPS

Abstract

When working with an IT startup, a young developer will always encounter difficulties in analyzing risks. Since there are quite a few options and methods for analysis, it was decided to investigate some of the most effective methods of risk analysis. Also, the implementation of a startup, as a rule, is based on attracting external financing. But more often than not, the investor is interested not only how effective this project is in case of its successful implementation, but also what is the likelihood of a positive effect, that is, how much all risk factors capable of influencing the project are taken into account. So, one more confirmation of the relevance of the application of risk analysis is help in finding sources of project financing. The aim of the study is to analyze possible methods for quantitative risk analysis of an IT startup, with consideration of the most practica l methods for solving risk analysis tasks. The advantages of a qualitative risk assessment are the ease of understanding and implementation, the ability to rank risks using characteristics or color codes. Outwardly, the methodology for a qualitative assessment of project risks seems very simple – descriptive, but in essence it should lead the analyst to a quantitative result, that is, a valuation of the identified risks, their negative consequences and stabilization measures. In the process of research, we consider: the method of reliable equivalents, the scenario method, sensitivity analysis, and the Monte Carlo method. The goal as a result is to simplify the risk analysis for IT startups, as well as to achieve maximum efficiency and understanding the degree of influence of risks on IT startups for their further elimination or mitigation.